I’ve served in several churches throughout my career.  Some were growing, some plateaued, and some were in decline. By serving in kidmin, I have a unique perspective on the signs of decline that many senior leaders miss. 

None of the indicators I’ll talk about today are a sure sign you’re in decline. Rather, they are a warning flag that maybe you’re not reaching the lost and unchurched.  There are still things you can do to get your church back on track.  I won’t talk about those strategies today, but rather focus on warning signs and how to find them.

Here are 4 early warning signs your church is in decline.

1. Your nursery is full of siblings not the first-born

Like the rest of the signs, I’ll talk about in this post, this is not a metric that’s easily or even frequently tracked.  I don’t even list it in my popular post about 5 numbers you should track and why. However it’s a sure sign that you’re not attracting young families. Rather you are attracting older parents or retaining the parents that already attend. 

At the church I first noticed this problem, our nurseries were full.  But when I looked deeper at family demographics, I realized that the nursery kids were the third, fourth, and even fifth(!) child in one family.  I’m all for big families. But when your nursery is full of kids who are siblings, then you’re not attracting young or first time mothers.  A sign of a healthy, vibrant church is one that reaches all demographics.  If you’re missing first kids in your nursery, then you’re probably not reaching the late 20s to early 30s population. 

While you may not track how many siblings a child has, you should track how old and how many people are in each group.  Your church management system should have this data. 

2.  Parents and grandparents attend the church

I’m all for generational churches.  Each generation brings their own perspectives and experiences to the table.  When their grandchild gets baptized, we're seeing the fruit of a decision a young couple made 40 years ago. That's awesome.

However, if the only kids in your Nextgen ministries also have their parents and grandparents in your church, you have a problem.  This shows that you haven’t reached any new people in a long time.  Most likely, the grandparents raised their kids in your church and now those kids are raising theirs. 

Again, this points to you not reaching the next generation or attracting new people. A lot of times the parents who stay are not there because they believe in the mission, but rather because their families are there. They’ve never been anywhere else. 

Getting your church to change to reach new people can be tough but doable.  Consider hosting outreaches that focus on reaching young families. Also, changing your services to cater to younger people will go a long way.

3. The majority of baptisms and salvations are kids

I love baptisms, and it was a privilege to baptize so many of my kids when I was a kids’ pastor.  It was one of the milestones I set for every elementary kid.  But, if the majority of salvations and baptisms at your church are kids, there’s a problem. Your Nextgen ministries are doing a good job of discipling the kids they have, but the church isn’t reaching lost and unchurched parents. 

At one church we were excited to have several baptisms every quarter.  However, do you know the average age of those baptized? 

Ten. 

Most of the people we baptized were kids. On top of that, the reason we had so many each quarter was because I pushed baptism in my kidmin once a quarter.  In the other two months, the baptistry was practically empty.  This is a bad sign.

The likelihood of someone coming to Christ significantly drops after they graduate elementary. Even more after high school. But that number isn’t zero.  There are churches all over the world reaching adults of all ages.  Even if they accepted Christ as a kid, they can turn away, hit the bottom and realize they need Jesus. 

They need you and your church to lead them to Christ. I like what Craig Groeschel says:

I will do anything short of sin to reach someone for Christ.

Or what Rod Loy (Senior Pastor of First Assembly North Little Rock, AR)

A soul is a soul.

4. Funerals outnumber weddings

A few years back I asked Carey Nieuwhof some questions about my church.  I was afraid we were in decline or not reaching the young adult population.  He said a major shift for his church when he was starting out is the funerals started to outnumber the weddings. 

Granted many weddings aren’t held in churches these days. But people do get married, and you can track that number.  The same with funerals.  If you have more funerals than weddings, then you’re likely reaching the same people from 20 or 30 years ago.  They got saved at your church and never left.  And that’s great.  But if you’re not consistently bringing in new, younger people, then your church will literally die off. 

The hard part here is the people at your church now like it the way it is.  If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be there.  They want to reach new people, but they don’t want to change anything. As a leader you’re going to have to have some tough conversations and maybe hurt some feelings.  But with grace and wisdom, it is possible to reach the next generation while honoring the previous one. 

Our vision for our churches may have different words, but they all boil down to one thing. The Great Commission.  Being the witness to what Jesus has done and making disciples. 

If any of these signs are true in your church, it’s not a sure sign that your church is in decline. But they are warning flags that there might be a problem.  The good news is that it’s not too late to change.  Even if you’re a staff member, you have influence. 

In fact, it starts with you.  Who are you building a relationship with right now that doesn’t know Jesus? If you don’t have anyone then you should widen your circle.  Go to places that aren’t church related and be a friend.  Don’t ask your people to do something you’re not willing to do yourself. 

Let’s reach one more for Jesus.

Get resources to lead well in your ministry.